Smasher’s theorycraft exactly what percentage Hero’s Thwack can kill at
NintendoSuper Smash Bros. Ultimate DLC character Hero has been at the center of much debate, and a closer analysis at his Whack/Thwack ability shows how the powerful attack can eliminate players at different percentages.
The second DLC character for the game’s Fighter Pass was met with eager anticipation when announced, but his implementation into Ultimate has gone awry as competitive players are questioning his place in the roster.
Various clips and footage shows Hero using his Command Selection that can randomly call upon the move Thwack, which can instantly kill an opponent at certain low percentages while dealing very little damage itself.
Hero can get easy kills with Thwack, but certain conditions being met makes it easier than others.But it looks like the mystery of the K.O. percentage for Thwack is being revealed via a rigorous breakdown by Japanese Smash Researcher ‘Meshima’ after meticulously recording in-game results.
It seems as if the probability of being killed by Thwack and Whack scales with the percent of damage the opponent has. While that’s basic Smash Bros. knowledge, the interesting part lies in both how little the opponent’s percentage has to be to get a one-in-five change to kill, as well as how Hero’s percentage affects the chance of eliminating a foe with the move.
“Enemy % is fixed at 1.0% if the enemy is less than 20% (of damage),” Meshima said after looking at how the move’s effects changes at various percentages. “If the enemy% exceeds 20%, the probability increases when the enemy% increases, and the probability increases when the damage is 160% and 100%.”
The breakdown of Meshima’s analysis for the move.The analyst also noted how “the chance (of killing) increases with your own percentage, + 20% at maximum 300%.”
According to the data, the opponent only needs to be at 21% for a 150% Hero to Thwack them out of existence, even if it is only an 11.71% chance.
Managed to figured out formula, it costs 5,000+ Pichu since they are using hidden value and that has confused me :sweat_smile:
Kill chance = 1.0 + (Opponent’s % – 20) / (300 – 20) * 200) + 20 * (Hero’s % / 300)
where;
Kill chance <= 100
20 < Opponent’s % <= 300
Hero’s % <= 300— Meshima (@Meshima_) August 19, 2019
There’s been a ton of backlash against people being allowed to pick Hero in Smash Bros. events, as these kind of odds can still marr the competitive integrity of a tournament.
Legends of the Smash scenes like William ‘Leffen’ Hjelte applauded Hero’s ban by the South Australia Smash Central organization. Meanwhile, others like Gonzalo ‘ZeRo’ Barrios insisted that the hate toward Hero is a “knee-jerk reaction” from the Smash community.
While the numbers water down opinions that Hero’s Thwack is inherently OP, it still gives weight to some people thinking the character has no place in a high stakes Smash Bros environment.