Apple iPhone 16 could be in trouble as analyst predicts grim sales

iPhone 16 may not be a huge upgrade compared to iPhone 15, and that could result in a 15% sales decline for Apple, claims one analyst.

Apple doesn’t believe in adding massive upgrades to each new model and has still managed to top sales charts. However, the lack of solid upgrades on the iPhone 16 might cost the Cupertino company a significant decline in sales.

Industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts Apple’s shipments of iPhones may drop by up to 15% because of multiple issues, with the top reason being the iPhone 16’s lackluster upgrades. The company has also allegedly lowered the internal production targets for iPhones going forward.

In a Medium post, TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claims that “Apple may have the most significant decline among the major global mobile phone brands in 2024.”

“iPhone 15 series and new iPhone 16 series shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24 and 2H24, respectively (compared to iPhone 14 series shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 series shipments in 2H23, respectively),” writes the typically well-informed analyst.

Unsplash: @einfachlaurenz

The signs of this decline are already visible in China, where weekly shipments have “declined by 30–40% YoY in recent weeks.”

While the decline in iPhone sales in China is attributed to the return of Huawei and more consumers opting for foldables, globally it could be due to the lack of significant design changes and new features.

“It is expected that Apple will not launch new iPhone models with significant design changes and the more comprehensive/differentiated GenAI ecosystem/applications until 2025 at the earliest,” Kuo writes. “Until then, it will likely harm Apple’s iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth.”

What about all the iPhone 16 AI leaks?

Kuo’s reporting on Apple is often reliable, but we find his claims about the iPhone 16 not getting AI features hard to believe. There have been reports of Apple giving Siri a generative AI boost. Reliable sources like Bloomberg have also claimed that Apple plans to announce several AI features with iOS 18.

Even if Apple doesn’t introduce any AI features with the iPhone 16 (which is unlikely), the company may still not suffer as steep a decline as the analyst suggests. As AppleInsider rightly points out, “Kuo has predicted iPhone sales drops for five consecutive years, which have not always happened.”